Fifteen years ago if you wanted to write an application that would run on over 90% of the world’s personal computers, you only needed to target one OS. Today, to do the same, you’d need to develop for ten - Windows, Linux, OS X, Android, iOS, webOS, BlackBerry OS, Symbian, MeeGo and of course, the web.

You don’t get order without first having chaos and you don’t end up with consolidation without first going through fragmentation. The PC era was dominated by Microsoft and Intel. The transition to ubiquitous computing allowed for many more competitors, which results in a great deal of fragmentation up front.

The goal however, is the same. Every player in this space wants to be what Microsoft was during the PC era. Even the actions are the same. There’s no interoperability between platforms, there are closed door negotiations and exclusivity agreements resulting in a number of alliances that are not easily broken.

Microsoft’s leverage is existing revenue stream. Its partners want to continue to receive favorable terms for existing PC shipments and thus tend to avoid embracing Google or other non-Microsoft OSes too eagerly. Google’s leverage is the promise of a very un-Microsoft future. Lower costs, friendlier terms and the ability for its partners to get in on the ground floor of something big. Neither approach is guaranteed and aligning yourself with one company is risky. The rest of the players are vertically integrated hardware vendors that are trying to mimic the success that Apple has had with iOS and OS X (e.g. HP/Palm, RIM). MeeGo is the only exception there as Intel/Nokia want it to be treated as an alternative to Android.

Then there’s the web. The most universal of all of the platforms, the web isn’t controlled or dominated by any one company. Great open source browser projects have ensured that nearly all of the platforms I listed above have great ways to access the web, and most can run any app you’ve got on the web.

PCs are the more traditional portal to the web. Sure they can do much more than run a web browser, but as web applications and services grow more powerful, the list of things you have to do outside of a browser window shrinks. This is especially true for mainstream consumers who check their email in a web browser, get their news in a web browser, chat in a web browser, watch videos in a web browser and listen to music, all within a browser window. In fact, the netbook was born out of the idea that you don’t need a huge transistor budget to provide the silicon that can drive a browser and the apps you run on top of it.

Fifteen years ago most households had one computer, if that. These days you might have five within a single room (desktop, notebook, smartphone, media streaming box and tablet). Households didn’t become infinitely more wealthy over the past two decades - the cost of these secondary and tertiary computing devices just dropped. Moore’s Law enables two things: more processing power at the same cost, or equivalent processing power at a lower cost. Iterate the Law a few times and you’ll eventually be able to create silicon that’s fast enough for specific tasks at a very low cost. Shrinking transistor feature sizes, costs and high levels of silicon integration gave us the fast enough ARM based SoCs that enable today’s awesome smartphones, as well as the Atom processor that created the netbook industry.

Interestingly enough, the problems that impact the high end of the market also impact this fast enough segment of the market. At the high end we’ve got tons of compute, storage and IOPS thanks to multicore CPUs/GPUs, low memory costs and SSDs, but we don’t have a lot of software to really tax it all. Believe it or not, the same gap exists at the low end. The difference is that while Atom is more than fast enough to run a web browser, it’s typically burdened by a heavy weight OS that hampers the user experience.

Microsoft’s Inaction & Learning from Our Mistakes
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  • Hrel - Monday, December 13, 2010 - link

    I thought Microsoft was going to do that Sandboxed browser/apps thing way back when Vista came out. I remember specifically reading that that was one of the features of Vista and why it was so important to make sure your CPU supported virtualization.

    Alas that never came to pass; now we're here in Windows 7 reading leaked info about Windows 8 and it STILL hasn't happened. For shame $soft, for shame.
  • rscoot - Monday, December 13, 2010 - link

    The "I'm not an idiot, so I don't need to run antivirus" opinion is horribly outdated. With as many 0 day exploits and drive by hijackings from legitimate websites you can't just say, "I don't search for horse porn and download warez I'm ok" anymore. Unless you don't use any PDF or Flash software (just for a couple of examples) on your PC, you are going to be at risk. Is your risk as high as the average user's? Of course not, but considering how cheap good antivirus software is (Microsoft Security Essentials is free and low footprint), the only reason not to run AV is to cultivate the smug attitude that you're better than people who choose to protect themselves.
  • TantrumusMaximus - Tuesday, December 14, 2010 - link

    To all of you who commented on the fact Google will house all your personal information... "I SALUTE YOU"

    I love my right, my personal right TO USE A CAPS LOCK key when I want to.

    I love my right on my PC - PERSONAL Computer to do things "I" want to do today without handing my data to big brother to review every last action I make.

    This world is soooooo moving towards the evil futures in many movies where the government makes all your choices for you, knows when you wipe your a$$, knows when you banged your wife, knows all.

    SCREW THIS. I hope it burns.
  • has407 - Saturday, January 1, 2011 - link

    Anand -- Thanks again for the food for thought. I too am impatient to get to the end of the story. But I think the trajectory is ordained; timing is the only question. (Timing, not trajectory, seems to always be the most difficult. I remember pontificating in 1998 that, "with 2MBps ubiquitous connectivity, I could jettison most of the weight, power and data storage I have to lug around with my laptop--which is always out of sync with my other machines--grrr. We should be there by 2004-2005". Hah! ever the techno-optimist. :)

    Will it replace everything else? No. But IMHO that is irrelevant. The relevant question is: Where will the growth be in the coming years? That growth will be--and demonstrably has been for some time--in services and apps that are web-based or anytime/anywhere (which is simply another way of saying "cloud-based"). That's where the developers and development $ will go, because that's what the vast majority of people want and expect (and will increasingly want and expect).

    Yeah, I'll still have my home-based Linux/Win/etc infrastructure, but for most tasks I don't need it, don't (and can't) want to have to lug it around when mobile. That's speaking as an individual... From a corporate perspective there are plenty of options, e.g., "hybrid clouds". But the hard facts are that most organizations--especially smaller organizations--can't provide equivalent SLA's or performance at equivalent cost as public cloud. The differences in economies are off-the-charts compared to what any but the largest organizations can achieve.

    See, e.g., "Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud Computing":

    Maybe there will be a swing of the pendulum back towards something like "person clouds", but my crystal ball doesn't go that far out. :)

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